Is This The End?

[TacoKid]

For the last three or four weeks I have tried to just put aside all the negativity and really enjoy Sirius XM. Telling myself that with 17-19 million subs, they will find a way to work it out.

It was working.

Enjoying the Stern show. Enjoying Sirius XMU. Political talk. Putting away the music snobbery and enjoying Hits 1. Having fun listening and dissecting the playlist on The Beat. Real Jazz. Backspin. Listening to The Loft become a great station to listen to. (Not quite Disorder but I think I'm okay with that.) 90's on 9.

Then--Boom. Echostar this. Echostar that.


Could I wake up one day, like tomorrow, and it all be gone?

Really?

Sad.

 

[Aaron]

My question is if it comes down to that... How long would that process take? It took Sirius and XM a year and a half to merge.

Sometimes you're better off not knowing all the stuff that goes on. When you actually get in your car and listen, it's all good!

 

[IdRatherBeSkiing]

I try not to worry about it. I still maintain that too many people/corporations have vested interests in the survival of satrad for them to disappear. But if I am wrong ... I have a new MP3 player. Will miss the live radio though.

 

[DAB]

I can't sit and worry about this kind of stuff. I've looked at it, I've changed my subscriptions to suit my needs and now I am just rolling with the flow. I don't have a lifetime sub, I do quarterly subscriptions and I sold all my older sat radio equipment leaving me with just my XpressRC. So, if the worse case scenario happens (which I honestly don't think it will) but it if does then I'll be out very little. I have Slacker and my iPod Touch, so life goes on.

 

[goreds2]

I hope it never goes but if it does, I may try Slacker.

 

[Tgajr]

Lifetime sub rules

I can't sit and worry about this kind of stuff. I've looked at it, I've changed my subscriptions to suit my needs and now I am just rolling with the flow. I don't have a lifetime sub, I do quarterly subscriptions and I sold all my older sat radio equipment leaving me with just my XpressRC. So, if the worse case scenario happens (which I honestly don't think it will) but it if does then I'll be out very little. I have Slacker and my iPod Touch, so life goes on.

DAB. I recommend the lifetime sub. You also get the free streaming with it.

 

[DAB]

DAB. I recommend the lifetime sub. You also get the free streaming with it.

You know I've been a subscriber for over 9 years and when they first came out with the Lifetime sub I could have bought it then and it would have long ago paid for itself, but I didn't because I like swapping tuners too much.

Personally where this company sits today on the edge of possible bankruptcy, I can't recommend it and I certainly wouldn't buy it! I guess everyone has their own way of looking at things. I will keep my quarterly sub and be happy!

 

[gilpdawg]

I hope it never goes but if it does, I may try Slacker.

Slacker is awesome. I bet the next generation portable will be the bomb. I found that my G2 was quite buggy, and I know I'm not the only one. I'll probably pick up another one when I get funds. I returned the one I had and there weren't any more in stock at that time at Best Buy, so I took the cash and spent it on other stuff.

 

[DAB]

I found that my G2 was quite buggy, and I know I'm not the only one.

That is interesting because other than an isolated incident of mine not signing in to refresh, which I think has since been addressed in a firmware update, I've never had any stability or buggy issues overall. I'd be interested in knowing what all the bugs where you were experiencing. You can PM if you prefer as to not take over the topic with this conversation. Just curious!

In regards to the topic, I think many have already switched to Slacker as an alternative, some like myself sort of as a backup, others have just switched totally already!

 

[Grüpsaar]

I am still holding out on Sirius. Havent switched yet to Slacker, but who knows. Maybe this year will be the year.

 

[IdRatherBeSkiing]

As far as I can tell, buggy equipment/software/firmware is par for the course. It looks like the idea is get it to market in the absolute shortest amount of time leaving out proper time for thourough testing. It seems every piece of modern technology is like this. The good news is that firmware can be updated on most new devices.

 

[Supafly]

Echostar will have to find a way to make sat radio profitable in a short amount of time. They won't be able to refinance the debt without a solid plan for profitablility.

There may be further restructuring including additional price increases, less/combined content, and lower overhead.

It may be that sat radio will exist as a premium service available to a smaller audience.

Or they could drop the service altogether and use the equipment and licensing for a seperate venture.

 

[TSS Taylor]

What Satellite Radio and SIRIUS XM have created will never go away. Maybe the name will change, maybe another company will own it, maybe the means to getting content to customers will change, or the monthly fee. But will never fully go away is that there will be a national/international radio content that can reach far more people than thousands of Terrestrial Stations. It can reach people will little or no internet access. It can group together and buy content that any individual station can't buy. It can offer music without commercials.

I'm not worried about Echostar. They won't give up on 20 million extra subscribers, that's just not good business. They may tweak things to make it more worthwhile, which is kinda what SIRIUS XM just started to do with price changes. The demand for this service is there, in fact it's so great that often times when people are without their Satellite Radio on their commute they freak out. Because the demand is there, a market is there. And often times the current subscribers have such a vested interest in the service that they end up so frustrated when things aren't going their way. That says there is a demand for the service to EXPAND and add additional offerings and services.

 

[Jleimer]

I am not worried about Dish buying Sirius XM , I just am wondering what would they do with it would they continue sat radio as is or just kill it and put TV in the Car. This is a big question right now as I am not too sure about Sirius Xm's future I give them a 30 percent shot of surviving 09.

 

[VinnyM27]

With Sirius being bought by Echostar, I'm very weary. Might be time to call it quits. The music programming is already lacking....I imagine this will be the total transformation to FM, complete with commericals. Echostar will have no idea what it's doing and just be looking at the bottom line. But of course, customers won't stand for it. It will all go down the tubes. Maybe Slacker is the wave of the future.

 

[Sean]

At 20M subscribers paying 10 / month that's a 2.4B / year revenue stream. Who would want such a thing? That totally sucks. Let's shut it down.

Seriously though, first, echostar would not replace radio with tv in the car, for one simple reason - nobody wants to watch tv while they drive. I can just imagine how much worse the traffic in NY and DC would be if everyone were watching Howard TV on their commute...

Second, sirius' business has a lot of fixed costs, they have to pay for satellites, they have to pay for howard and sports programming and terrestrial repeaters, etc, etc, etc. All those things make the economics of this business LOUSY at the beginning since they cost the same when you have 1M subscribers as they do with 20M subscribers.

Comcast, warner, directtv, echostar, they all almost went broke at least a few times in the 80s and 90s. But they all turned out to be good businesses in the long run because subscribers tend to stick around for a while. Echostar understands the economics of that kind of business well, which is why they are interested in SIRIUS.

30% chance sirius survives 09? I will take those 2-1 odds - I will bet you $1000 against $2000 that sirius survives 09 and we are still listening in 2010. PM me to set it up.

If echostar did decide to acquire sirius it would happen a lot faster than sirius/xm because there would be less antitrust concerns (they aren't getting bigger in any one industry) and because they are so close to bankruptcy the govt doesnt' want to be seen as pushing any businesses into bankruptcy (would chase and wamu have been allowed to merge so quickly in normal times?).

 

[Jleimer]

With Sirius being bought by Echostar, I'm very weary. Might be time to call it quits. The music programming is already lacking....I imagine this will be the total transformation to FM, complete with commericals. Echostar will have no idea what it's doing and just be looking at the bottom line. But of course, customers won't stand for it. It will all go down the tubes. Maybe Slacker is the wave of the future.

It is just a rumor but there is alot of uncertinty right now with Sirius XM would Echo Star keep the music as is or turn it into testicular radio. Lets just wait and see what happens.

 

[Sean]

*IF* echostar bought or became further involved in sirius (beyond just making an investment in what many would consider undervalued bonds) it is FAR FROM certain that the radio would become worse. Remember that Joseph Clayton, the former CEO of sirius is on the board of echostar. He ran the company from 2001-2004, a period of time when sirius was arguably even more differentiated from traditional radio than it is now.

The future is bright, guys, we have more options for listening to awesome music and talk then ever before, and they are only going to increase. When I think back to the days when I had to buy cds and listen to radio commercials it makes me laugh.

Has anyone else been into hypem.com (hypemachine) lately? It's not quite as listenable as my favorite stations on sirius but I like to listen for a few hours / day to hear *really* new stuff (the best of which usually shows up on sirius a couple weeks later).

 

[Supafly]

You can bring in $100 trillion in revenues but if your expenses are $101 trillion you will go out of buisness unless you can carry debt. Sirius can no longer refinance their debt.

Love and hope is not going to keep this buisness going in its current form.

Please look at these financials and tell me how this company has a chance in hell.

Especially take notice of:

Total Liabilites
Shareholder Equity
Operating Income

All drastically worse since inception in 2003.

SIRI - Sirius XM Radio Inc. - Google Finance
SIRI: SIRIUS XM RADIO INC Balance Sheet

 

[Jleimer]

This is why I see the company being either bought out by Dish this year , or filing Chapter 11 then have Dish take over because there debt is so huge. Now my question is does anyone here think they could lobby Washington for another bailout?