Don't Forget, We're Not Normal.....

[medmondson]

Ever since the layoffs, there has been one irate post after another stating that Sirius XM is going to lose hundreds of thousands of customers over the upcoming changes to the musical channels.

Let's remember gang, of existing 20 million subscribers, what percentage of those has idea what's going on, or is even really going to care? Joe Consumer just doesn't get wrapped up into the minutia of these things like some of us tend to.

If he clicks on his radio, and can find "the game" or find a listenable music station that doesn't have 20 minutes of commercials an hour, he's going to be rather happy regardless of whether the station is called "The Big 80's" or "Decades-The 80's". Those of us on boards like these are the token few who are going to jump off a bridge if "The Boneyard" is six feet under, Joe Consumer is going to go, "hmmmmm, I thought there was a metal station around here somewhere, guess not" and get on with his life.

While some of us may not be happy with what's going on (quite frankly I prefer the more hits oriented Sirius channels anyway) the notion that THIS is going to be the thing that undoes satellite radio is, quite frankly, misguided and silly.

PS-If I never hear the term "shallow playlist" again, it'll be too soon.

 

[racefla]

"shallow playlist" :churn:

 

[ClubSteeler]

I agree. These people on these forums are such a tiny percentage of the subscribers. We're "in the noise". Zero point zero.

 

[Grüpsaar]

It's true. As much as we want to be heard and have an influence, average subs wont know or care. Which I guess works for SiriusXM, as there is bound to be more average listeners then diehards like us, so they can make it back quickly.

That doesn't mean I won't complain when I feel the need to, though.

 

[ClubSteeler]

Especially those car-only listeners. Unless you work from your car, you're never going to notice the depth of playlists.

 

[TimTimSalabim]

Just because someone doesn't log onto a bulletin board doesn't mean they're ignorant and impervious to differences in quality.

 

[Fergz99]

I guess we will find out soon how many are just fat and happy with no commercials and shallow playlists

 

[IdRatherBeSkiing]

I would hope for Sirius XM's sake, you are correct. All I can say is that when the channel changes happen I will re-evaluate my subscriptions and likely do the same thing they are doing .. rationalize it down to the minimum I can live with.

And I hope that all the channels don't have shallow playlists.

 

[medmondson]

Just because someone doesn't log onto a bulletin board doesn't mean they're ignorant and impervious to differences in quality.

Impervious to differences in quality, certainly not, but since this isn't really the Nightly News Headline many are treating it as, then yeah, I'd dare say most are rather ignorant to these issues.

The switch we'll be made, the majority of subscribers won't even notice, a small percentage after a few weeks may think to themselves "hmmmm, something isn't quite the same" and the even smaller, but clearly more vocal minority, will continue to come to boards like this and talk about killing themselves if Lucy doesn't return while not making a single dent on Sirius XM's bottom line.

 

[SISO]

Joe the Consumer may not care but Joe the Plumber is going to be uber-ticked.


But no, you're exactly right. The people on this forum do not give a true depiction of 97% of SiriusXM's listener base. So long as they can hear 80's without commercials or whatever they aren't going anywhere. They may say "oh, this isn't as good as it used to be" but most of them aren't gonna go anywhere. They just don't care as much as we do.

Yes, there will be some added churn but nothing like this forum (or any satellite radio forum) would lead you to believe.

 

[roscoryan]

But no, you're exactly right. The people on this forum do not give a true depiction of 97% of SiriusXM's listener base. So long as they can hear 80's without commercials or whatever they aren't going anywhere. They may say "oh, this isn't as good as it used to be" but most of them aren't gonna go anywhere. They just don't care as much as we do.

Yes, there will be some added churn but nothing like this forum (or any satellite radio forum) would lead you to believe.

Well stated SISO, and I tend to agree with you. Although I'm anxious to see what happens, I will still never go back to terrestrial radio. And I'm somewhat optimistic that some pleasant surprises will still occur in the future for satellite radio.

 

[Manco]

What you forget is that they will likely have to drop channels with no replacement. That will cause many that listen to those channels to drop the service.

 

[DAB]

You know there maybe some folks that drop XM because of the channel changes coming. But I think once they go back and listen to FM for a week or a month, deal with an iPod or other MP3 music player. They will realize just how easy Sat Radio is and they will likely come back. It is one of those things that you don't miss what you've never had, but once you've had it, the alternative is just not acceptable.

I love my iPod I used it a great deal, but even with all the fun stuff on there and even all the recently added music apps, I still find that I gravitate toward Sat Radio. Some days it will be XM, some days it will be Sirius. When the music channels are combined I will likely just have to grab one and go, it won't matter which one at that point.

There will be some churn, there is no doubt about it. But once the dust settles and Sirius XM can get their finances together. We'll begin to see some advertising and new folks subscribing won't be the wiser for all these changes and many of those that left will return.

 

[MadisonRadio1]

I think it's very possible there could be a huge negative reaction to the changes especially if customers are not going to be notified of the changes. If the satellite customer is willing pay $200 for a receiver, $13 a month for a subscription and whatever for accessories, you probably have a high interest in the program menu you are paying for. Including music choices. I'm sure many customers have their presets set up for the Coffeehouse or Watercolors and such. People will be wondering "where was my ememo on this".
In the end though, they will all probably stay.

 

[ussmak]

i agree with DAB, even if Sirius dropped my favorite channels, a month of terrestrial radio would drive me back to satellite. but only if the price remained the same, if they start jacking up the price then i might actually reconsider.

 

[ClubSteeler]

DAB makes a great point.

For example, I am not allowed to stream at work, and no window and no repeaters = no Sirius. I go insane tuning in FM. I can recite word for word each of the 20 commercials that are repeated every hour all day. I go insane. I'm bored with my music on my MP3. Even if I lose my favorite sat channel, it's still wayyyyyyy better than FM.

 

[Jgatie]

Anyone remember the last bunch of irate XM fans who promised a mass cancellation due to programming changes? They bellowed from the rooftops of every forum they could, they smashed their radios, staged protests (granted, none of the protests were actually at XM), and in the end they numbered ~5000 total cancels, 0.071% of the XM subs. And those were hardcore fans, not the casual XM subs that make up the majority.

Indeed, like the OP said, we are a drop in the proverbial ocean.

 

[MichaelC]

I believe where you'll see a drop in subscribers is those of us who are dual subscribers who'll no longer need all of these subscriptions. However, I don't see it making a huge dent in the numbers. I was at first an XM subscriber and then added Sirius for NASCAR & NFL. But now that I can get both of those on XM I'll be cancelling my Sirius subscription when my year that I've already paid on expires.

I don't think things will be all that bad. Sirius made its mark with the talk programming, where XM made its mark with the music programming, and I tend to think that's how the merged company will go.....lean towards the XM philosophy with the music side of things and lean towards the Sirius philosophy when it comes to talk and sports, etc.

 

[MNXMFan]

You need to remember and account for the fact that many of those subscribers that will stay are much less passionate about the service, and therefore, much more likely to cancel.

Those left will cancel more often, and cost the company more. Yes, you want to make everyone happy. XM did it right. They spread their listeners out amongst ALL channels, and this was apperant in the arbitrons. Sirius had some very popular channels, but once you factor out Howard, they dropped off quite quickly.

And, as I'm sure many SIRI shareholders will atest to, never put all your eggs in one basket. Mel did it at CBS. Left before the basket broke. He will do the same here.

TSL was higher, AQH was higher, and thus churn was lower. Many XM subs got it for the music, and again, the ratings stated that. The numbers might not be accurate, but they must be at least close on percentages.

So yes, while I will agree that we are not normal, I would not dismiss the churn that will be seen. More people will cancel every quarter, because the "quality" of the subscriber will go down. Your casual fan, while they probably don't care about music variety or DJ's, also doesn't really care that much about the service and will cancel sooner.

New customers are more expensive to get than keeping an old one, and 90% of your customers will cancel without even telling you why. Customer service 101.

Growth for the next two quarters will likely be pretty good, as Mel switches XM's count to Sirius methodology of counting empty cars. But after that, the real picture will show.

 

[ctkatz]

so many people are whining about losing their music channels that they are threatening to cancel.


what about those of us who have satellite radio and don't give a damn about the music? i'm sure i am not the only one who got a satellite radio for reasons other than commercial free music. if all the music channels went away, i could honestly care less. but yet i am effected by the emo-like attitudes of the subscriber base. its like i'm the only one who thought that with merger, music channels needed to be consolidated because it made no sense to have to have the same music channels play the same genre of music on two different systems. if there is anyone who thought that "the big 80s" and "80s on 8" were both going to survive, i have some beachfront property in wyoming i can offer you. i honestly think that if these new channel names weren't the sirius names but something else new entirely, people would be less upset.

i would be a hell of a lot more interested in seeing the talk radio lineups. which channels are going to be whacked and what shows are going to be moving to existing channels.