Will Sirius XM go bankrupt in 09

Will Sirius XM go bankrupt in 09

  • Yes

    Votes: 33 34.4%
  • No

    Votes: 63 65.6%

  • Total voters
    96
  • Poll closed .

jef

Power Pig, Hello!
Oct 12, 2008
3,849
185
63
I think they will be able to ride out 2009 - possibly not without some more battle scars, but I think they will make it.
 

Brad Bishop

Member
Dec 3, 2008
576
21
18
Bankrupt doesn't mean 'out of business'. They may very well file bankruptcy (Chap 11) and then renegotiate their loans, rework their business, etc. Someone may come in and buy them up. A lot of things can happen. I think it's unlikely we'll turn on our radios one day in 2009 and there won't be anything there.

Bankruptcy would give them an option of renegotiating with Howard Stern. That deal never made any sense to me. I never got why they created two channels for him to run 24/7. As of now, it'd make more sense for him to be paid podcast and maybe be on SiriusXM sometime during the day like the other popular radio hosts. I don't begrudge Howard for earning what he earns and taking the deal, though. He also brought a lot of listeners to Sat Radio.
 

hexagram

Medicinal & Recreational.
Oct 11, 2008
2,760
96
48
Seattle, WA
No, I don't think Sirius will go bankrupt. However, things will not be easy for them (with the economy going to shit and what not).

As for Howard... I would be happy with him being on the air 2 days a week (like he suggested).

But I would also be content if he were to retire at the end of his contract if it would save the company enough money to put them in the black. After all, I didn't jump on board with Sirius just for Howard.
 

atlwxman

Member
Oct 14, 2008
74
0
6
As stated above, bankruptcy does not necessarily mean shutdown. My feeling is that SiriusXM will be forced into Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the next few months after not being able to refinance the huge debt coming due. Under Chapter 11 SiriusXM will still operate while reorganizing.
 

IdRatherBeSkiing

Sherbert is not and never will be ice cream
Oct 11, 2008
17,861
5,462
168
Toronto, ON
I think they will meet the debt repayments this year. They already converted some of it to shares about a month or so ago. Perhaps it is just wishful thinking on my part.
 
Oct 10, 2008
644
11
18
Chicago
I could also see them being purchased by a foreign investor. Alot of people are taking advantage of buying or investing in American companies that are having problems. Who knows what could go down.
 

Brad Bishop

Member
Dec 3, 2008
576
21
18
The other thing to keep in mind is how other companies have faired in the past:

IBM during the early 90s had it's stock in the toilet and was shedding people like crazy. I thought they were toast back then. They came back strong.

Sears is still around. I don't know how as I can't name anyone who shops there except for the occassional appliance or tools and even then I think most people hit Best Buy and Home Depot these days. Yet, there they are. I haven't been in a busy Sears in probably 2 decades.

Motorola was on top of their game in the cell phone market and then Nokia took it from them. Then others took it from Nokia.

Then you have other companies that just closed up shop like Montgomery Wards.

I'm just saying that we can all speculate and have polls about what we think will happen but there's really no good way to predict the future on this stuff. If any of us were really good at that we'd be foolish to post our thoughts here when we could just invest in or short the stock and make plenty of money.

Still, it's fun to speculate.
 

Tgajr

Member
Oct 11, 2008
282
2
18
Baltimore, MD
I think they will file for bankruptcy

Here are my reasons:

1) If you cant pay your mortgage you cant buy radio
2) Auto companies are in trouble and facing declining sales. This was Mel's pillar "Getting sirius into cars is the key to success"
3) Unemployment is going up. I know 3 people who are losing their jobs in December. And this is in Baltimore, where they are plenty of jobs.
4) You arent going to buy radio if you are unemployed
5) The company has yet to make .01 in profit. That isnt going to happen when subscriber-ship falls. I dont believe their models.
6) Piss pour customer service discourages those who arent die hards like us. So building upon the base will be more difficult
7) Retail isnt doing well. Circuit city is in bankruptcy. I went there last week and there was NO Sirius XM displays.
8) Signing bullshit deals with Oprah and Martha Stewart are a waste of money. If you main subscriber is male from age 18-40, who cares about this bullshit programming?
9) Their desperate clinging to one artist programming is proof there is trouble.
10) Share prices sank to as low as .08 this year after all the advances the company has made. NOT A GOOD SIGN.
11) Recession Recession Recession

I love the programming, but a fact is a fact.
 

Vargas

Molon Labe!
Oct 16, 2008
3,426
151
63
Western, PA
The other thing to keep in mind is how other companies have faired in the past:

IBM during the early 90s had it's stock in the toilet and was shedding people like crazy. I thought they were toast back then. They came back strong.

Sears is still around. I don't know how as I can't name anyone who shops there except for the occassional appliance or tools and even then I think most people hit Best Buy and Home Depot these days. Yet, there they are. I haven't been in a busy Sears in probably 2 decades.

Motorola was on top of their game in the cell phone market and then Nokia took it from them. Then others took it from Nokia.

Then you have other companies that just closed up shop like Montgomery Wards.

I'm just saying that we can all speculate and have polls about what we think will happen but there's really no good way to predict the future on this stuff. If any of us were really good at that we'd be foolish to post our thoughts here when we could just invest in or short the stock and make plenty of money.

Still, it's fun to speculate.
Sears repositioned themselves from being a "guy's store that sells more than just hardware" when they launched the "Come see the softer side of Sears" advertising campaign. The capmpaign was so effective that Sears lost it's edge with men. Now, if you watch their ads, they are right in the middle of the road.

I too agree that I haven't been in a busy Sears---in fact, I mostly forget about them when looking for eloectonics. However, it seems that everytime I talk to my Dad (he's 64) he is always coming back from Sears or taking someting back to Sears, etc. Sears is going to be in HUGE trouble as the baby boomers age because I don't know anyone my age (31) that is a big Sears shopper. We all go to CC or BB. Our generation is the Super Store generation, not the Department store generation. Damn, I just broke that down....I should open an ad agency that caters to department stores trying to target the younger male. I'd clean up. Who's with me?
 

Jleimer

Active Member
Oct 30, 2008
1,226
13
38
Sparks,NV
Here are my reasons:

1) If you cant pay your mortgage you cant buy radio
2) Auto companies are in trouble and facing declining sales. This was Mel's pillar "Getting sirius into cars is the key to success"
3) Unemployment is going up. I know 3 people who are losing their jobs in December. And this is in Baltimore, where they are plenty of jobs.
4) You arent going to buy radio if you are unemployed
5) The company has yet to make .01 in profit. That isnt going to happen when subscriber-ship falls. I dont believe their models.
6) Piss pour customer service discourages those who arent die hards like us. So building upon the base will be more difficult
7) Retail isnt doing well. Circuit city is in bankruptcy. I went there last week and there was NO Sirius XM displays.
8) Signing bullshit deals with Oprah and Martha Stewart are a waste of money. If you main subscriber is male from age 18-40, who cares about this bullshit programming?
9) Their desperate clinging to one artist programming is proof there is trouble.
10) Share prices sank to as low as .08 this year after all the advances the company has made. NOT A GOOD SIGN.
11) Recession Recession Recession

I love the programming, but a fact is a fact.
I agree with you there , and this is why I posted this poll is because first off the economy is in the crapper . second of all questionable signings like Oprah and Martha Stewart along with Chris Russo which I remember hearing from Artie Lange on Bubba's show will not be like the others and be uncensored. Along with the worst CSR's and PR Department ever I think there is a shot that they could go bankrupt in 09 , I am hoping they not because I enjoy the programming , but the truth is this company is in serious trouble and if they dont get it together then Satellite Radio will be a failed expriment.
 
Last edited:

jwt873

Member
Oct 12, 2008
112
6
18
Sadly, I also agree with Tgjar. I'm a former shareholder. I bought at 2.84 and sold at 2.74.. Despite getting out of the stock, I've been following it closely for the last year.

I'm actually expecting there will be a day late in 2009 when the music stops. I hope I'm wrong.

SIRI predicts they will have over 20 million subscribers in the new year, but if the unemployment figures are going to be as massive as predicted, I can't see new subscribers coming online.. If anything, I can see unemployed people canceling subscriptions as part of making ends meet.

SIRI has been struggling for months to raise 300 Million by Feb/09.... If they do manage to scrape up the cash, then they have to begin raising another 600 Million that's due in the fall of 2009. If Sirius can raise the 600 Million due in the fall, then they have another 2 BILLION dollars that they have to refinance in the next couple of years.

For anyone who hasn't bee following the current financial crisis... Credit is EXTREMELY hard to get. This is especially true for a business like SIRI who's stock has dropped from around $2.50 per share to 14 cents per share in less than a year.

Just today, stockholders voted for SIRI to dilute the share pool by issuing millions of more shares and then doing a reverse stock split to get the stock up over a dollar so they don't get delisted from the NASDAQ exchange.

Massive dilution and stock splitting often turns out to be the final desperate gasps of a company just before it goes under.
 

Jleimer

Active Member
Oct 30, 2008
1,226
13
38
Sparks,NV
I am one of those people who thinks Sirius XM could go under anytime in 09 , but I hope I am wrong , right now it is just so tough to predict what will happen . If it does I think the NAB will have a party to celebrate their number one competitors demise.
 

hexagram

Medicinal & Recreational.
Oct 11, 2008
2,760
96
48
Seattle, WA
I could also see them being purchased by a foreign investor. Alot of people are taking advantage of buying or investing in American companies that are having problems. Who knows what could go down.
Not likely. In fact it's impossible. Otherwise Worldspace would have been bought a long time ago and they're still going through Chapter 11. Also, UK completely shut down operations with WorldSpace and the only remaining market is India.
 

hexagram

Medicinal & Recreational.
Oct 11, 2008
2,760
96
48
Seattle, WA
Here are my reasons:

1) If you cant pay your mortgage you cant buy radio

It seems likely that they will be able to negotiate or meet their upcoming date. As you can from the video interview of Mel conducted by Reuters posted earlier by someone (can't remember who), he seems very confident and assuring in paying off the debt.

2) Auto companies are in trouble and facing declining sales. This was Mel's pillar "Getting sirius into cars is the key to success"

Yes, the auto industry is a very important element of satellite radio. But I think Sirius can survive with their existing subscriber base plus enough to hit the 21.5 million mark (which they expect to reach by the end of 2009). Also, American cars are not the only cars that offer satellite radio. They have full backing by the foreign cars as well, so there will still be satellite radio for cars regardless.

3) Unemployment is going up. I know 3 people who are losing their jobs in December. And this is in Baltimore, where they are plenty of jobs.

Unemployment is going up and Sirius XM have already cut jobs (and who knows, there may be a little more if it will truly save cost and allow the company to remain completely functional), but most of the jobs have been cut already by removing DJs and "duplicate content".

4) You arent going to buy radio if you are unemployed

We're not in the "Second Great Depression" yet. People will still have their income and they will still spend (though they will be much more tight with their money).

5) The company has yet to make .01 in profit. That isnt going to happen when subscriber-ship falls. I dont believe their models.

As long as they can properly finance their debt (and I'll say I'm personally confident Mel will find a way), they will be able to ride the storm out.

6) Piss pour customer service discourages those who arent die hards like us. So building upon the base will be more difficult.

I suppose everyone has different experiences. In all the times I've had to call Sirius, I only experienced a wait time of 1/2 minute to 3 minutes and no incident with CS reps. But I take yours (and everyone else's) word that they can be shitty. If that's the case, they should definitely work on that (you definitely don't want to piss a customer off, that usually means cancellation in most circumstances).

7) Retail isnt doing well. Circuit city is in bankruptcy. I went there last week and there was NO Sirius XM displays.

You said it yourself. Circuit City is in the shitter, and they are struggling to even stock merchandise from their suppliers (which is why you don't see any Sirius XM displays).

8) Signing bullshit deals with Oprah and Martha Stewart are a waste of money. If you main subscriber is male from age 18-40, who cares about this bullshit programming?

Oprah and Martha Stewart is definitely a waste of money. But in this business, you still have to appeal to all tastes (and that includes the women, even if they are the minority in the subscriber base). That's why I think Sirius should drop the two at the end of their contracts and form one channel strictly for women (homeworking moms in particular since this is the audience these channels cater to). Definitely some significant cost savings there and you free up a channel for better use.

9) Their desperate clinging to one artist programming is proof there is trouble.

I agree with you that one artist programming is fucking bullshit and it needs to be removed immediately, but I don't see how there is "trouble" for the company by having them.

10) Share prices sank to as low as .08 this year after all the advances the company has made. NOT A GOOD SIGN.

They will do a reverse-stock split before it gets any worse.

11) Recession Recession Recession

Unless consumer retail completely shuts down, I don't see satellite radio being completely obliterated in the stream. There will always be a presence.
At least that's the way I see it.
 
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Tgajr

Member
Oct 11, 2008
282
2
18
Baltimore, MD
Just some clarification

1) If you cant pay your mortgage you cant buy radio

It seems likely that they will be able to negotiate or meet their upcoming date. As you can from the video interview of Mel conducted by Reuters posted earlier by someone (can't remember who), he seems very confident and assuring in paying off the debt.

I was referring to the over 2.2 million Americans who are in foreclosure. Not Sirius' HQ

3) Unemployment is going up. I know 3 people who are losing their jobs in December. And this is in Baltimore, where they are plenty of jobs.

Unemployment is going up and Sirius XM have already cut jobs (and who knows, there may be a little more if it will truly save cost and allow the company to remain completely functional), but most of the jobs have been cut already by removing DJs and "duplicate content".

People without jobs dont buy radio. They listen to FM. As more and more americans lose their jobs they will not buy radio or they will cancel their subscriptions.

9) Their desperate clinging to one artist programming is proof there is trouble.

I agree with you that one artist programming is fucking bullshit and it needs to be removed immediately, but I don't see how there is "trouble" for the company by having them

One artist channels are paid for by the artist. Think about it. Thats great exposure for the artist. So they pay Sirius to have a channel all to themselves.

If the company was making money this wouldnt be necessary. Subscriber satisfaction would be a priority not artist exposure!