Here are my reasons:
1) If you cant pay your mortgage you cant buy radio
It seems likely that they will be able to negotiate or meet their upcoming date. As you can from the video interview of Mel conducted by Reuters posted earlier by someone (can't remember who), he seems very confident and assuring in paying off the debt.
2) Auto companies are in trouble and facing declining sales. This was Mel's pillar "Getting sirius into cars is the key to success"
Yes, the auto industry is a very important element of satellite radio. But I think Sirius can survive with their existing subscriber base plus enough to hit the 21.5 million mark (which they expect to reach by the end of 2009). Also, American cars are not the only cars that offer satellite radio. They have full backing by the foreign cars as well, so there will still be satellite radio for cars regardless.
3) Unemployment is going up. I know 3 people who are losing their jobs in December. And this is in Baltimore, where they are plenty of jobs.
Unemployment is going up and Sirius XM have already cut jobs (and who knows, there may be a little more if it will truly save cost and allow the company to remain completely functional), but most of the jobs have been cut already by removing DJs and "duplicate content".
4) You arent going to buy radio if you are unemployed
We're not in the "Second Great Depression" yet. People will still have their income and they will still spend (though they will be much more tight with their money).
5) The company has yet to make .01 in profit. That isnt going to happen when subscriber-ship falls. I dont believe their models.
As long as they can properly finance their debt (and I'll say I'm personally confident Mel will find a way), they will be able to ride the storm out.
6) Piss pour customer service discourages those who arent die hards like us. So building upon the base will be more difficult.
I suppose everyone has different experiences. In all the times I've had to call Sirius, I only experienced a wait time of 1/2 minute to 3 minutes and no incident with CS reps. But I take yours (and everyone else's) word that they can be shitty. If that's the case, they should definitely work on that (you definitely don't want to piss a customer off, that usually means cancellation in most circumstances).
7) Retail isnt doing well. Circuit city is in bankruptcy. I went there last week and there was NO Sirius XM displays.
You said it yourself. Circuit City is in the shitter, and they are struggling to even stock merchandise from their suppliers (which is why you don't see any Sirius XM displays).
8) Signing bullshit deals with Oprah and Martha Stewart are a waste of money. If you main subscriber is male from age 18-40, who cares about this bullshit programming?
Oprah and Martha Stewart is definitely a waste of money. But in this business, you still have to appeal to all tastes (and that includes the women, even if they are the minority in the subscriber base). That's why I think Sirius should drop the two at the end of their contracts and form one channel strictly for women (homeworking moms in particular since this is the audience these channels cater to). Definitely some significant cost savings there and you free up a channel for better use.
9) Their desperate clinging to one artist programming is proof there is trouble.
I agree with you that one artist programming is fucking bullshit and it needs to be removed immediately, but I don't see how there is "trouble" for the company by having them.
10) Share prices sank to as low as .08 this year after all the advances the company has made. NOT A GOOD SIGN.
They will do a reverse-stock split before it gets any worse.
11) Recession Recession Recession
Unless consumer retail completely shuts down, I don't see satellite radio being completely obliterated in the stream. There will always be a presence.