There's so much more to this than, "Their stock is low so they'll just shutter their doors one day."
What may happen is that they do a reverse stock-split which, for most people, would make them look good in the stock market again because most people evaluate a company based on the price of the stock and not the market cap. If the stock value is low, like it is now, then people think it's junk. Do a reverse stock split and put it at a few dollars a share and suddenly your average dolt will think that they've recovered without any kind of thought as to, "oh, there was a reverse stock split - they're really about the same."
If they do file for bankruptcy then they'll could file Chapter 11, renegotiate contracts (Howard, etc.) and start rebuilding.
They also could just add commericals to their content, justify it as necessary in order to stay in business and, although they'd lose some subscribers in doing so, they may make more money from their remaining subscriber base plus the ad revenue. Like I said, there will be those that say, "No way I'm staying around for this! It's supposed to be ad-free and I'm paying for premium radio!" (and there's really nothing wrong with that argument) and there will be others who will be apologetic about it and say, "Well, it doesn't do them any good to remain ad-free if they can't stay in business. They'll need to raise subscription rates, otherwise!" (I've seen much of the same on TiVoCommunity). Regardless, it's a tactic they could use (the allowing ads deal, not the comments by forum members).
I'd say that the worst thing is that they don't have direct competition with each other. I think that would have kept them lean/mean. You could argue, "but they would have both gone out of business if they remained as-is," and that is true but that would have forced them to do something different to remain in business and competitive. I remember the same argument from DirecTV and DishNetwork about how both of them were going to close up shop unless allowed to merge. They're both still here, just as strong as ever as far as I can tell.
I'm just saying that there's a lot more to this than their stock price and them folding up in a few days/months/years. I just don't think it's that simple.
That being said, I think they have a few perception problems to deal with:
- They've almost become like CB radios in the late 1970s. Everyone seemed to want one but after they had them for a while they simply didn't care and didn't keep them in their cars long term. I really can't name any new subscribers that I personally know. They seemed to peak a few years back (based on my knowledge of friends/family)
- Most people seem to like satellite radio when they have it (like in rental cars) but don't miss it when it's not there.
- They've changed it to be more FM-radio like (Sirius Hits 1 is a fine example of that with their (IMO) horrible morning crew) and, from my take, FM radio (at least here in Atlanta) seems to have actually improved over the last few years. Basically, I'd rather listen to a hits FM radio station locally than to Sirius Hits 1.