Sirius Backstage

Discussion in 'SiriusXM Soundwave Cafe' started by MUSCLE13, Jan 17, 2016.

  1. MUSCLE13

    MUSCLE13 Member

    Reading the old Sirius Backstage forum from 10 years ago. Oh man the fights I got into LOL Hilarious

    I wonder if I am the only guy from those forums that became a millionaire investor??? Did anybody else invest big in the 08-09 crash of SiriusXM?
    HecticArt, semipenguin and Aaron like this.
  2. Aaron

    Aaron Moderator

    No investment in SXM from me, but still a loyal subscriber..

    Yes indeed, a lot of good times and memories from the Backstage days!
  3. MUSCLE13

    MUSCLE13 Member

    Would love to go 10 years into the future and look back again. I tend to think the future is bright for Sirius. I am heavily investing again during the latest market correction. I see 50 million US radio subs one day, a worldwide connected vehicle business, and possibly a "worldwide" video service from Howard/Sirius. I also believe Sirius will dominate domestic internet radio in the car addition to sat radio.
  4. scotchandcigar

    scotchandcigar arrogant bastard

    You're the only one I've heard of. Seems to me that, in order to have made a million on SIRI, one would need to have invested at least $50K when it was at 0.15, and then held it until it got over $3. So if you happened to have had that combination of balls and luck, good for you.
    I doubt that. At some point (between 2010-2012), SXM got accepted as a standard feature in most new car radios. Then it took a few more years for the majority of people to get a new car. So now most of the country has access to SXM, and the subs have hit 27-28mil. And while there are still some people who are driving older cars without built-in access yet, few of those will start subscribing when they eventually do get a new car, because they've been making due without it for so long.

    But as far as growth, SXM has zero marketing, and the availability of wifi/cellular streaming services improves everyday. Plus, streaming is something that people are already doing and familiar with, so when it becomes available in their car, they'll already be subscribed to the services. There is literally nothing new on the horizon for SXM, and I'm sure the satellites will be retired in the next few years, because they'll need maintenance/upgrades, and there's not enough of a market to support the massive expense of doing that.
  5. HecticArt

    HecticArt Administrator

    Along with the lifetime sub, buying a pile of Sirius stock when it was at its low of 17 cents (or whatever magical low it was) is another of my missed financial opportunities in life. I believed in the company then, and still do now.

    At the time, I was paying off my student loans and cash poor after buying my first house, so I wasn't in a place where I was acting on acting on smart opportunities if it meant writing another check. Those were always "one of these days" things to do. Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

    Great days for the forum back then! Lots of exciting things were happening, new toys, customizations, clever installs, and tons of programming updates.

    The company still has a lot of life in it. They have learned that they need to keep evolving, and they are.
  6. MUSCLE13

    MUSCLE13 Member

    I invested heavily at 37 cents back then. 6 figures was a small portion of a retirement funds, so it didn't take balls or luck, just a matter of calculating how Mel would integrate the companies to create a free cash flow machine, as he did in in several companies I invested in back in the 90s. I sold when Mel left about 3 years ago at around $3. Kept very little. Made big money in Comcast, Charter, Disney, Time Warner Cable over those years as well. Media has always been my hobby. Got me to 7 figures. Back in Sirius again now. Too many growth drivers.

    80 million cars on the road have SiriusXM built in. In 10 years that will equal 180 million cars on the road with sat radios built in. New cars convert at a 40-41% clip. Used cars convert at about a 32% clip. About 17 million new cars sold each year. About 40 million used cars sold each year. Just simple math gets you from about 29.6 million subs to about 50 million subs in 10 years, counting churn. I am more interested if SXM 17 can drive those penetration rates and conversion rates higher. I would like to see it go standard from 75% penetration and get factory installed OEM's from 180 million cars to 250 million cars eventually. That could drive domestic subs much higher 50 million, but that's likely taking it past 10 years.

    Taylor have you seen SXM17 sat and internet in the car in action yet? What about the telematics and Howard video? Thanks!
    Last edited: Jan 17, 2016
    HecticArt likes this.
  7. scotchandcigar

    scotchandcigar arrogant bastard

    Well you seem to have a vested interest in knowing the figures on car installations, while I'm just speculating, so I'll have to take your word on that. But my observation is that most people don't value music enough to pay $20/mo for it, when there are other options. Sirius has been available for so long that those who would want it already have it. It's no longer new technology, so I don't think the potential growth market you describe will be realized.
  8. HecticArt

    HecticArt Administrator

    Well done Muscle. :thumbup:
  9. MUSCLE13

    MUSCLE13 Member

    Thanks HecticArt.

    ScotchandCigar - All the numbers I posted are publicly available info from Sirius' quarterly reports earnings calls, and media conferences. Yes I follow it closely, as I do most of media. It's a hobby. I do agree with you fervently that internet is coming to the car and that is why I am so interested in SXM17. I also believe that music streaming services are replacing iPod downloads, which replaced CD's in the car, which replaced tape decks, which replaced 8 tracks. Music streaming is a different business than radio.

    Couple things fascinate me about Sirius' future strategy. While I don't think they will take radio worldwide, I do think they could take Howard video and telematics worldwide. And the autonomous car will eventually happen. It may take 10 or 20 years. Will Sirius' satellites play a role in cars on the road communicating with each other which will have to happen with autonomous vehicles, and will video come to the car as well in a self driving environment? Sirius may be positioning video for such an environment. So many things to think about. Wish I could look ahead 15-20 years. I did a pretty good job with the last 10. I think I have a handle on the next 5.

    My personal opinion is that Taylor has a better perspective on the future than I do. That's why I am asking the questions here.
  10. goreds2

    goreds2 Well-Known Member

    OMG, I remember going to there when XM and SIRIUS were different platforms. The rivalry made it sooo fun.
    semipenguin and HecticArt like this.
  11. HecticArt

    HecticArt Administrator

    Lots of new toys and mods too!
  12. MUSCLE13

    MUSCLE13 Member

    And I'm still here at $1.2 million in my retirement account currently. Isn't long term investing fantastic? I am shocked that nobody else did what I did. So simple. There must have been somebody from the old boards that had the same idea........
    goreds2 likes this.
  13. scotchandcigar

    scotchandcigar arrogant bastard

    You're like clockwork, pretty much exactly 1 year ago you said this
    Again, I'm happy for you, but anyone with a retirement account and a brain made big money from the crash up to now. I gained close to $0.5 million in my 401k, and that's just with a near-minimum company-matched contribution. I did it by repeatedly buying low and selling high, like one is supposed to.

    The difference between what you did, and what I did, is that you took educated risks in companies that very-well could've folded; whereas I went heavily into funds that were bound to recover, barring a complete collapse of the US economy. So you risked losing it all or staying flat, with a potential for more gains than me, but my gains were virtually guaranteed.

    So what are you planning to do with your retirement money? I bought a piece of land to build a house with mine.
    goreds2 likes this.
  14. MUSCLE13

    MUSCLE13 Member

    I answered because I got an email yesterday thay somebody responded to this thread.

    I will be in Sirius for the next 5-10 years. Its not my biggest investment. I have other retirement accounts with S&P 500 index funds that I have continously invested since 1987.

    I just dont understand why nobody here saw or continues to not see the opportunity for growth in Sirius....Its easy to see
  15. HecticArt

    HecticArt Administrator

    That's killer that you've done so well with this stock. Congrats.

    I think it's easy for many/most of us to see the current stability or growth for SXM for the next several years.
    The bigger variable was back when the stocks were in the dumper and going for 17 cents a share, or whatever that magic low number was. Sure, it wouldn't have taken much to gamble on to see a sizeable return when the stocks recovered, and wouldn't have been much of a loss if they hadn't. You chose well.

    Unless the market crashes again soon, that's not a gain we're likely to see out of SXM again.

    With the rate that technology evolves, and the fickle nature of the entertainment industry, 6 to 10 years could make SXM as popular as fax machines. Personally, I hope they keep growing.

    As for myself, I don't talk much about my portfolio or hand size.
    scotchandcigar and goreds2 like this.
  16. goreds2

    goreds2 Well-Known Member

    Another key for retirement is to stay debt free. I am except for the house which is five years away from being paid off. When I retire, I will be rent/mortgage payment free. (Sorry, I am a little off topic)
    scotchandcigar likes this.
  17. MUSCLE13

    MUSCLE13 Member

    As for Sirius' future based on my calculations for Free Cash Flow Per Share, Sirius should be trading at $6 a share right now at $7.20 by the end of the year and 8.60 by end of 2018. I think it is still extremely undervalued by the market since its growing FCF per share at a 20% CAGR. Up to $1.5 Billion in FCF this past year and buying back stock a $2 Billion a year run rate. I believe it is very undervalued and I will stay invested as long as it is stays undervalued based on the free cash flow generation. I don't invest in stocks that I think are overvalued or fairly valued based on FCF EBITDA or EPS multiples.

    Plus strategically, if it buys Pandora, I believe Sirius will build it into 180 million cars on the road over a decade long period just as it is building Sirius into 180 million cars. Then you have a double pronged attack on terrestrial radio in the car with Sirius subscription and Pandora advertising. A dual revenue stream that could literally destroy terrestrial radio, which still has a stranglehold on that $17 billion per year audio ad market in the car.

    I think they should buy Pandora at this level. It was ludicrously priced at $40 per share 3 years ago. Now it is reasonably priced under $13. And with the Copyright Royalty Board decision on internet radio rates last year, I think Sirius can actually make Pandora profitable and free cash flow accretive if they build into car mfrs OEM.

    Just my 2 cents. I think it's rather simple to envision the paths forward on numbers and strategy. I simply cannot believe nobody else on Backstage saw this years ago nor do they see it now. It isn't rocket science. It's valuations. And the fact that Sirius itself is going from being built into 180-190 million cars over the next decade from the current 90 million is as plain as day to see. It's absolutely clear.

    Oh well.......
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2017
    scotchandcigar likes this.
  18. HecticArt

    HecticArt Administrator

    I'd say that 2 cents is closer to 7 cents.
    scotchandcigar likes this.
  19. scotchandcigar

    scotchandcigar arrogant bastard

    The technical information you provided seems sound and well-researched. And if things continue in the direction you're suggesting, that would indeed be great for the future of SXM.

    That being said, I don't think you understand DRC. There are less than two-dozen people who post on this forum, and maybe a quarter of them came from Backstage. So out of the (perhaps) hundreds of former Backstage forum members, six of them are here. And it's not hard to imagine that those six are primarily music lovers, not investors who had $100K laying around - at the height of a great recession - to risk on penny stocks.

    I'm sure that if you visited the stock market thread of any number of social forums (such as Bimmerpost for BMW owners), you'll find the other people who went heavy into SXM back in '08. But going forward, I think that SXM may be a good bet - per your assessment - but it's unlikely to increase 10-fold as it's already done.
  20. MUSCLE13

    MUSCLE13 Member

    Yes it does look like the forum is empty. I just came back to read the thread because I got a message in my email. Haven't visited here in a year. My opinion is it points to the censored nature of these types of sites. People get fed up with being told what they can or cannot write about, and powerplay bans. So the topics become boring as heck. So they all leave. Happened to me here too. That guy HecticArt treated me horrendously years back. Moderators suck. It's all subjective censoring. Take care guys. Good luck to all.

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