Among first-time candidates on next year's ballot, who has the best shot at being voted into the Hall? For me, it's close between Alomar and Larkin. Larkin has an MVP, Alomar does not. But in two seasons less, Alomar has nearly 400 more hits than Larkin. So I'd vote for Robby.
I voted for Alomar as he is the best overall second baseman I have seen and I grew up in Joe Morgan's prime. I am not sure if Larkin is a first ballot. If not, I hope to see Bert Blyleven finally get in.
I don't think any of these players get in next year. I see Dawson and Blyleven (maybe) making it in 2010. Eventually, I think Alomar gets in. Martinez had some great seasons but he was a DH, so that may work against him. McGriff not getting 500 HR's works against him, especially considering the high octane era he played in. Larkin didn't have an extended run of great seasons, but for a brief time he was one of the top 10 players in the league.
Roberto Alomar is a lock. Among all second basemen, Alomar ranks sixth in hits, seventh in runs and 10th in RBIs. With 474 steals, he's fourth all-time among second basemen. . Oh yeah, and he could play a little defense. He won 10 Gold Gloves, tops among second basemen. Edgar Martinez will not make it. While he did have a .312 lifetime BA, he didn't play a position and he did not achieve any of the "magic" numbers (most notably 3,000 hits or 500 HR's) Barry Larkin will not make it. Solid player but he was hurt way to much and his numbers reflect this fact. He managed to play in 150 or more games in only four seasons. Larkin spent significant time on the DL in 10 different seasons. If the guy stayed healthy he would have been consider one of the greatest SS of all time. Fred McGriff will get in eventually. There are exactly a dozen first basemen in the Hall of Fame. Only five of them drove in more runs than Fred McGriff, only four hit more home runs, and only three scored more runs. Mostly, we're talking about Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Willie McCovey and Eddie Murray. However, when looking at his era, McGriff's numbers fall short of Rafael Palmeiro, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome and Mark McGwire. Considering this was the steroid era, I think McGriff deserves to get in at some point...but not this year.
Alomar should be a first time Hall Of Famer. McGriff in my opinion is very underrated and should be also but he will not for at least a few years. Larkin is close but probably not a first ballot guy.
With his retirement yesterday, add Curt Schilling to a very interesting ballot of first-time nominees for the Baseball HoF class of 2013. Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, Piazza, Biggio. I think Roberto Alomar will most likely be the top nominee for 2010. Bagwell will probably headline 2011 No one even remotely worthy in 2012.
2013 looks to be the Steroid Brigade. It will be interesting with Bonds and Clemens. They banished Pete Rose for violating the leagues gambling policy. Would/should they not do the same with Clemens/Bonds for violating the leagues substance abuse policy?
It won't likely be an official banishment from the League offices POV. But the Baseball Writers (read: HOF voters) have long memories. I don't see Bonds or Clemens getting in for a long time, if ever.
If McGwire's exclusion is any indicator of future votes, you're right, Bonds and Clemens won't be getting in when 2013 rolls around. Sammy Sosa too.
It still cracks me up to this day that Sammy Sosa forgot how to speak english during the congressional hearings.
If Burt Blyleven cannot get in (over 280 wins / 5-1 in postseason 2.47 ERA) then I in all due respect say no to Schilling (216 wins / 11-2 in postseason 2.23 ERA). Curt Schilling Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com Bert Blyleven Statistics - Baseball-Reference.com
