I'm not sure if Mussina will get into the HOF at all, let alone the first year he's eligible. If there were a "Hall of the Very Good", he'd be a lock. But there's not. Now eventually, he might get in because he's a beloved Yankee and that goes a long way with the voters. But if you look at the numbers, does he really belong in the HOF?
-3.68 career ERA...pretty good, but HOF worthy? He did pitch in the AL his whole career though, and the majority of it during the "juiced" era. Maybe that helps his case.