Is This The End?

Sean

Administrator
Oct 9, 2008
36
1
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expenses can always be cut. :)

Expenses can always be cut.

In the last quarter they reported on (08Q3) they had $488M in revenue and $489M in ordinary operating expenses (so ignore the "Impairment of goodwill" and "Depreciation and amortization"). Now, their revenue has grown some since then and they are surely cutting expenses like MAD (and don't have a bunch of the merger-related expenses, lawyers, bankers, etc). They are also growing more slowly, which reduces Subscriber Acquisition Costs ($87M that quarter).

So long as ordinary operating income is positive, it will make sense for somebody to operate the business, unless the assets of the business are worth more doing something else. SIRIUS doesn't have a lot of assets with other uses.

Sean


You can bring in $100 trillion in revenues but if your expenses are $101 trillion you will go out of buisness unless you can carry debt. Sirius can no longer refinance their debt.

Love and hope is not going to keep this buisness going in its current form.

Please look at these financials and tell me how this company has a chance in hell.

Especially take notice of:

Total Liabilites
Shareholder Equity
Operating Income

All drastically worse since inception in 2003.

SIRI - Sirius XM Radio Inc. - Google Finance
SIRI: SIRIUS XM RADIO INC Balance Sheet
 

HecticArt

Administrator
Oct 19, 2008
36,475
9,953
168
Toledo, Ohio
It's all speculation at this point. With the entire economy upside down right now, I'm not going to worry too much about SXM. I'll worry when it's time. Right now, the shit and the fan are only in the same room, they haven't come into contact yet.
 

Fergz99

Member
Oct 14, 2008
650
15
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Slacker is awesome. I bet the next generation portable will be the bomb. I found that my G2 was quite buggy, and I know I'm not the only one. I'll probably pick up another one when I get funds. I returned the one I had and there weren't any more in stock at that time at Best Buy, so I took the cash and spent it on other stuff.
I have looked into Slacker it shows a lot of promise, but the limits on the trial accounts or free accounts isn't really giving me an opportunity to explore the service and really see how good it is.
 

limegrass69

Confused
Oct 12, 2008
6,078
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New York
The management could change, the programming could change...we might even see some commercials...but satellite radio is not going away any time soon, IMHO. Hopefully, whoever owns it will still continue to put some effort into delivering some compelling programming.

There is a lot of talk about iPods, Slacker, music via mobile data, etc. Those are great ideas, and they will take some time to really gain some traction. That's because there will always be a large group of people who just want to flick a knob and hear something. Lot's of people don't want to be bothered with iPods. Also, what happens when you start streaming music non-stop to your mobile device? How will people feel when they start seeing bills for data usage from their mobile carriers?
 

jef

Power Pig, Hello!
Oct 12, 2008
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I don't know about everyone else here, but I can barely go an evening when I don't see some SUV or minivan trucking along the road with those in-car LCDs playing something, usually for the kiddies. So TV in the car is already something that is taking off.

And as for Echostar, I'll be sticking it out to see what happens. I've had Dish Network for about 10 years now, and while I may not have loved every decision they've made over the years, overall I'm quite happy with the company and the service. Basing any long-term decisions on what might happen are foolish. Not getting a lifetime sub, sure, I can see not doing that in the present climate. But dropping or changing my existing service because of some potential bankruptcy or change in ownership moves things closer to becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
 

TacoKid

Member
Oct 27, 2008
212
6
18
Euless, TX
www.twitter.com
I have looked into Slacker it shows a lot of promise, but the limits on the trial accounts or free accounts isn't really giving me an opportunity to explore the service and really see how good it is.
I've only ever used the free service on their website and that alone has sold me on Slacker.

How many trial accounts have you gone through?
 

Jon

Well-Known Member
Dec 16, 2008
12,835
3,178
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Amsterdam in the Rockies
I have had Slacker since it first came out and belive me I am not regretting joining them.
Slacker is fantastic. Worth the $47.88 yearly subscription for unlimited skipping and favoring/banning tracks.

I do think Dish Network will do a better job with SiriusXM than Mel ever would. I'm not sure what the service would look like post-Howard. Whether it would be all music, or some news/talk content along with the music content.
 

DAB

Mod Emeritus
Oct 9, 2008
9,434
149
63
Louisiana
It's all speculation at this point. With the entire economy upside down right now, I'm not going to worry too much about SXM. I'll worry when it's time. Right now, the shit and the fan are only in the same room, they haven't come into contact yet.
Exactly why worry about something that may or may not happen. Just position yourself in the best position for the worse case scenario and then go from there. I still very much so enjoy my Sat Radio sub there are many programs on there that I wouldn't want to be without. There are even music programs that I like, but honestly musically I've gotten hooked on Slacker so I am too a point now where I don't really care what Sirius XM does with the Music as Slacker has me covered. Still this isn't to say that I don't think Sirius XM isn't doing an okay job with the music. I just found something that works better for me.

I don't see sat radio just going away. It may look different and it may have a different feel to it, but just going away... Just don't see that happening. Yes I know the financial outlook is bad, but many of these sat companies have gone through times like this, though admittedly not during a down turned economy. So, we'll see! I got my sub and I am keeping it. I am not going to pay them a year in advance and I am not getting a life time sub, but will continue to support the service.

I have looked into Slacker it shows a lot of promise, but the limits on the trial accounts or free accounts isn't really giving me an opportunity to explore the service and really see how good it is.
The free account with the plus or premium sub has no limits except for the number of days you can have the service before your have to cancel it or go ahead and subscribe. Not sure what you are talking about there. I think the trial sub should be longer, but there nothing you can't do during the time that you can do if you subscribe.
 

DAB

Mod Emeritus
Oct 9, 2008
9,434
149
63
Louisiana
There is a lot of talk about iPods, Slacker, music via mobile data, etc. Those are great ideas, and they will take some time to really gain some traction. That's because there will always be a large group of people who just want to flick a knob and hear something.
Interesting thought, but how many iPods have been sold? How many account registrations has Slacker had? I've heard over 6 million, though there is no way to confirm that. How many have subscriptions out of that 6 million. I think they probably have a good many subscribers especially now that they lowered their price. I think iPods and even Slacker already has traction and they have one thing that sat radio is lacking right now. It is called positive BUZZ! Unfortunately the main buzz going for sat radio isn't very good and I think it has done more harm for gaining new subscribers than anything. People don't want to take a chance on a company that appears to be on the way down. I disagree with that as a sat radio subscriber, but I understand it.

Also I can push play on my iPod Touch or Slacker G2 and instantly hear something. Slacker only requires you pick out your favorite channels and from that point on it takes care of it from there. Sort of like selecting your presets for sat radio. I lay down at night with my Slacker on the side of my bed much like I did with my sat radio. The only difference is as I am listening to my New Age/ Meditation channel going to sleep, it is refreshing my stations and charging my battery for use tomorrow. Nothing could be more simple! Slacker only requires extra work if you wish to create customized channels and really work on tweaking them. To me this has been a fun thing and brought a new level of excitement. I enjoy changing my channels or creating them and then listening to the results. Once I get them where I want them, I can then share them with others.

I hate Bruce Sprinsteen, Wham, George Michael. I'd rather be cut than to hear them, well with Slacker I never have to hear them, with sat radio I have no choice and changing the channel yeah I can do that, but why? I don't have to change the channel on my Slacker service because these guys aren't ever going to play. Like your music deeper, no problem, perfer hits okay. Like currents no big deal, want to try classics gotcha! None of that can you do with sat radio. Now sat radio does have some advantages in special programs, live performances etc. This isn't to say that Slacker wins on every point, but I think they win on a great many of them.

iPhones all come with an unlimited data plan, so there won't be any big surprises. Not sure what the situation would be for Blackberry phones, but I am sure there will be unlimited data plans available for it as well.
 

limegrass69

Confused
Oct 12, 2008
6,078
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New York
I'm already sold on Slacker...so you're preaching to the choir.

I think if they can get a Slacker unit built into the car, they might be onto something. The unit can refresh itself at night when the car is parked in your driveway using your wi-fi.

The idea of real-time streaming music on the go using a wireless carrier's network has a way to go. Read the fine print on your mobile data plan. Most, if not all of them, have some sort of cap. Verizon's co-called "unlimited" mobile broadband has a 5GB cap per month. I'm pretty sure there are similar caps on other mobile networks. Even some cable/telco broadband providers are doing the same thing (mostly with higher caps like 25GB/month, etc). There will be more of this to come. It's naive to think that your cable company is going to idly sit and watch you stream your movies from Netflix rather than hit up something on PPV. Give it a year or two...just watch. If this sort of stuff becomes more mainstream, expect to get hit up by your wireless carrier. Broadband companies are really trying to avoid becoming a dumb pipe.
 

IdRatherBeSkiing

Sherbert is not and never will be ice cream
Oct 11, 2008
17,298
5,145
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Toronto, ON
That is one thing that has always bothered me about modern marketers. They are outright liars. Look up the definition of unlimited. Nowehere does it mention anything about caps and limits. Outright crooks and snake oil salesman all of them.
 

DAB

Mod Emeritus
Oct 9, 2008
9,434
149
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Louisiana
I think if they can get a Slacker unit built into the car, they might be onto something. The unit can refresh itself at night when the car is parked in your driveway using your wi-fi.

I think even if they come up with a decent car kit that many with the portable will be happy and it would likely persuade many others to jump on board. I don't mean the one that was initially mentioned that would allow you to refresh via satellites either to me that is just not necessary.

The idea of real-time streaming music on the go using a wireless carrier's network has a way to go. Read the fine print on your mobile data plan. Most, if not all of them, have some sort of cap. If this sort of stuff becomes more mainstream, expect to get hit up by your wireless carrier. Broadband companies are really trying to avoid becoming a dumb pipe.
Yeah you certainly bring up a big point and I agree. I personally don't even have a data plan on my cell phone, I just never used it enough to make it worth the cost. I use Wifi via my iPod Touch though a good bit though for Slacker, Pandora. I don't stream movies just not a big enough screen.

I think your point though that these companies are going to want their piece of that pie is true and likely only a matter of time. I know at one time AT&T or one of them were talking about totally eliminating the unlimited plans, but then they came out with the iPhone and that sort of got hushed. The reality is that I suppose there has to be some sort of cap.

I have some months were I download a good bit via my cable service, but yet there are other months when I hardly download anything other than normal email and a bit of surfing. But once movies, music and everything is streamed you are more than likely correct in your prediction. :) I would think they would do away with unlimited, but go to a tiered plan like satellite internet does now. You have various plans depending on how much speed and how much bandwidth you'll think you'll consume. Once you reach it you can buy another block or you'll be throttled back dramatically.
 

styckx

Member
Nov 11, 2008
250
4
18
Most, if not all of them, have some sort of cap.
A bit off topic, but this! This! Is what bothers me.. I have a aircard through Sprint, w/ a 5GB cap. (Honestly they are very tolerable about going over), but the point is this.

Mobile broadband is EVERYWHERE, people want on the go movies, music, internet, blah blah blah blah. Blowing through 5GB of data in a month is borderline becoming easy without even thinking. The U.S. cell carriers really need to catch up w/ the times w/ their networks and start offering unlimited plans again.. Mobile broadband is finally mainstream and the carriers do NOT have the infrastructure to fully support it yet.
 

jcc

New Member
Nov 18, 2008
18
0
1
Gulfport, MS
I sure hope it isn't the end but if it is (I hope if Echostar does buy Sirius XM they won't turn it to something else; why would they do that to 19-20 million subs?; I'm dying to know what their intentions are) I have the ipod touch, which I would love more if the apps would stop crashing)
 
Nov 9, 2008
179
2
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nj
Dish ideas

With Sirius being bought by Echostar, I'm very weary. Might be time to call it quits. The music programming is already lacking....I imagine this will be the total transformation to FM, complete with commericals. Echostar will have no idea what it's doing and just be looking at the bottom line. But of course, customers won't stand for it. It will all go down the tubes. Maybe Slacker is the wave of the future.
Echo had its own music channels before sirius was on it,my guesses would say they'd just use their own music if they were trying to continue sirius as a radio service for the car,this way it wont cost them much.....
 

jef

Power Pig, Hello!
Oct 12, 2008
3,849
185
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Echo had its own music channels before sirius was on it,my guesses would say they'd just use their own music if they were trying to continue sirius as a radio service for the car,this way it wont cost them much.....
That music is supplied by Muzak, a company who isn't in much better financial shape than Sirius.
 

limegrass69

Confused
Oct 12, 2008
6,078
243
63
New York
A bit off topic, but this! This! Is what bothers me.. I have a aircard through Sprint, w/ a 5GB cap. (Honestly they are very tolerable about going over), but the point is this.

Mobile broadband is EVERYWHERE, people want on the go movies, music, internet, blah blah blah blah. Blowing through 5GB of data in a month is borderline becoming easy without even thinking. The U.S. cell carriers really need to catch up w/ the times w/ their networks and start offering unlimited plans again.. Mobile broadband is finally mainstream and the carriers do NOT have the infrastructure to fully support it yet.
:soapbox2:

We'd all like truly unlimited everything, wouldn't we? But your post really sums up the contradiction of this argument.

You'd be pretty pissed if your next door neighbor was streaming all sorts of content (movies, music, pictures, P2P torrents, gaming, etc.), thus sapping you and your neighbors' shared bandwidth, right? The first thing people would do is get onto forums like this and Broadband Reports and bitch about how crappy their cable company is. Companies like Comcast are trying to come up with ways (like de-prioritizing certain traffic) to make it a little more fair for everyone during congested periods. Some folks seem to not like that too much. Time Warner is rolling out some caps and metered bandwidth. Some mechanism needs to be in place to keep the broadband providers profitable and protect the casual users.

We all want data providers (mobile carriers, cable companies, telcos) to build out an infrastructure (at a significant cost) with infinite capacity to satisfy everyone's broadband whims, yet everyone screams bloody murder when prices go up, or are adjusted to reflect the reality of providing that reliable bandwidth. How will that realistically work? There needs to be some incentive for the provider as well. Maybe the time is near when broadband providers are like the water or power company. Pay for what you use.

And, yes, the idea of marketing something as unlimited is misleading. In a sense, these companies have created the problem they now have to deal with.
 

Fergz99

Member
Oct 14, 2008
650
15
18
The free account with the plus or premium sub has no limits except for the number of days you can have the service before your have to cancel it or go ahead and subscribe. Not sure what you are talking about there. I think the trial sub should be longer, but there nothing you can't do during the time that you can do if you subscribe.
I was trying to create some channels and I was getting messages that I hit limits on songs and such. Before I spend the 200 or so for the player I wanted to make sure I could get everything I want.
 

DAB

Mod Emeritus
Oct 9, 2008
9,434
149
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Louisiana
I was trying to create some channels and I was getting messages that I hit limits on songs and such. Before I spend the 200 or so for the player I wanted to make sure I could get everything I want.
This while you were on a trial? The trial from my understanding sets no limits other than the 7 days for which you can use it free of charge.