jwt873

This heel dragging by the FCC is hurting both companies badly. They can't plan for the future until they know what it holds.. A simple yes or no will let them get back on track. Hopefully they can make it if the FCC votes no.
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http://seekingalpha.com/article/7300...?source=etrade

FCC Decision on Sirius/XM Merger May Be as Late as May - Stifel

Blair Levin, an analyst for Stifel, issued a report Friday covering many companies involved in the media sector. Included in this analysis was some detail and opinion on the pending Sirius (SIRI) and XM (XMSR) merger. Stifel sees a possible FCC decision taking place as late as mid May.

The companies currently have a merger agreement that expires on May 1, 2008. At that point either company could walk away from the deal without penalty. However, with DOJ approval already secured, it would be unlikely in my opinion for either Sirius or XM to not extend the deal. Investors should watch for an announcement regarding an extension of the merger agreement to happen very late in the month.

me_rubin

If it goes on after may 1st, XM/Sirius need to do some extension agreement as the current one would of expired.

I say Mel give them until June 1st then he will sue the FCC.

FCC is dragging its heels in hopes that XM/Sirius will let it go.

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soxnationonline

that absolutely is what's happening... they know they'll be opening Pandora's box if they approve the merger.

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dualsub33

Then it should have been denied a long time ago already.

SatRadioFan

When this first broke, what like over a year ago, the FCC said that they would approve it if the DoJ let it pass. This stalling is BS. I'm not sure if I want it to go through or not but stalling or going against the promise is BS.

soxnationonline

I guess you missed the comment I replied to and quoted.

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TheScionicMan

Those NAB payoffs are working... Stall it a few more months and there won't be time to prepare for this xMas season and they already scuttled last year's with the stalling.

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ThunderRoad

At this point, the FCC's in a bind. With the DOJ approving already, if the FCC denies it, they know they'll be hit with a lawsuit within 24 hours. And it could quite possibly be the DoJ testifying FOR Sirius-XM against the FCC (government agency vs. government agency). If the FCC approves it, then they'll have backstabbed the NAB who's been paying them. So what other options do they have? Stall! And let's keep in mind the NAB has a much closer relationship with the FCC than they do with the DOJ to make it happen.

So, the question becomes, what's the reason for stalling? As Scionic Man says, is it to make sure the merged company can't get out hardware in time for the holiday shopping season this year? Is it to hope Sirius or XM withdraws from merger plans? Is it hoping that one or both of the companies has to file for bankruptcy or close up shop or that they suffer irrepairable harm from losing business by having to wait so long? or is it all the above.

What I'm guessing is happening now is the FCC is going to wait until after May 1st. Either XM or Sirius could walk out of the deal by then, or extend it even further. The FCC is probably hoping that's what happens. However, with the DOJ already approving, I don't see either one walking away. Then the FCC will make a decision. If they approve, I could see this thing being so loaded with conditions that it's not worth it to follow-through on the merger. I just don't see an unconditional approval.

If there isn't a decision shortly after May 1, never know the 2 companies may join forces to file a lawsuit to force a decision. However, filing a lawsuit involves another extension of our U.S. Government and we've see how quickly (or lack thereof) they go about doing anything that if this thing gets stuck in the courts & lawyers, it may do nothing but compound the problem.

No matter which direction you look at, at this point in time, the NAB is winning the game. Will they end up winning? We just don't know. But the NAB has the momentum.

D0TC0M

@ThunderRoad

That was an interesting summary of the present situation. I would have to agree with most of it. Especially the part where you mention

jwt873

There are only a couple of big concessions being asked by the wolves trying to bite off a piece of the action:

- Georgetown Parnters LLC and Jesse Jackson's Rainbow PUSH want 20% of the combined Sirius/XM bandwidth leased to them so they can offer a competing service. This service will be free and will be supported by advertising.

- iBiquity Digital Corporation (the makers of HD radio) want their HD capability built in to all in-dash satellite radios.

The 20% of the bandwidth thing is the big sticking point... I'm guessing that negotiating this aspect, (ie how much frequency to give up and how much it is worth) is what is the main thing holding up the merger.

Sirius_Dog

The terms of the FCC rule implications and the NAB backbenchers are probably the reasons for the delay. This is going to be a new precendent, so I understand why its taking so long, but its starting to get drawn out way too long.

I hate the NAB, they should try offering consumers something they actually want. Not just Ad based media.

dZilla

I still don't get how Georgetown Parnters LLC and Jesse Jackson's Rainbow PUSH and the other groups want any bandwith.

The only thing that I can think of, and if someone can inform me if this is the case, that 'cable' companies or other 'satellite companies for say television' have to also give a certain amount of their hardware and resources so that others can piggybank on it. If thats the case then I think there may be grounds for an argument here.

Why is it that all these companies that are competing with Sat radio want Sat radio to instal equipment or give these companies and groups something to compete with.

Its like telling Microsoft (Xbox360) and Sony (PS3) to ensure that their consoles (if they were to merge and I am only speaking in 'console terms here') can play other games such as all 'black games' from the 'black corporations' and to play wifi games from a totally differnet company...............

Is the FCC on crack? Are they afraid that Sat radio is going to be the 'next big thing'............... jeez... Its barely surviving as is.

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Jon

The FCC has already said one company can't hold both licenses. I don't see them backing away from that.

I'm not sure either company can afford to extend their deal past May 1st. There is so much technology that is being introduced that surpasses what satellite radio has, and yet their sitting on their hands waiting for the government to save their ass, by the time this is all over it will be too late. Time for both companies to cut their losses, find some new management, spend more money on marketing, Technology and R&D and less money on the contracts of washed-up has-been shock jocks who can't get arrested outside the east coast.

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ctkatz

are you sure about that? i have seen some people on other webforums saying something similar, but different. that requirement of one company holding both licenses was more of a very stringent suggestion but nothing that was written in stone.

jwt873

When Sirius and XM were bidding for the frequencies, they knew that one company would not be allowed to own both: Below is the link to the rules that were hammered out years before either company started broadcasting:

http://wireless.fcc.gov/auctions/15/...s/fc970070.txt

Section 170 Says:

"Even after DARS licenses are granted, one licensee will not be permitted to acquire control of the other remaining satellite DARS license. This prohibition on transfer of control will help assure sufficient continuing competition in the provision of satellite DARS service".

However, this can be changed. Rules get changed all the time and the DOJ decision has set the stage for this to happen.

In January 2007, FCC chairman Keven Martin called the merger "a fantasy". .. I think if the FCC were still this firm on the competition angle, they would have made a negative decision months ago rather than allowing things to drag on allowing all parties to spend a fortune on hundreds of hours of hearings. (Last August, there were 140 lawyers going over 12 Million documents).